Page updated on 30 October 2024

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Sixth extinction event

The Anthropocene mass extinction is already happening from the year 1500. But this is being driven ultimately by growth of the global human population, increased consumption of natural resources. Here the start of the Anthropocene mass extinction is set at 2024, because around this year the mass extinction started due to climate change according to scientists.

This extinction in the future will be accompanied by rapid warming at an enormous rate and a global average temperature rise of more than 20°C.

Value Unit
∆ more than 6 °C
~20000 °C per million year

The trajectory of human carbon emissions under the heavy fossil fuel use scenario predicts a temperature rise consistent with the geologically determined magnitude threshold for mass extinction, which is 5.2 °C above pre-industrial levels. This would be reached before 2100. Potentially reaching the defined threshold on this time scale would lead to mass extinction similar to the first, second, third, fourth and fifth mass extinctions, regardless of other non-climatic human changes adversely affecting animal life.

The predicted extinction rates are:

  • 96% species
  • 56% genera
  • 57% families

The predicted extinction rates are based on the most severe extinction event in the past. This is due to the fact that the predicted temperature change of the future event is much higher than that of all past extinctions.

This will likely be the largest extinction event yet. Between 2025 and 2031, most plant species, insects, reptiles, birds and mammals will go extinct. In addition, all fish with gills in oceans will certainly go extinct due to the absence of oxygen (O2) in the water. In some areas, mammals heavier than 25 kg die from excessive heat, as temperatures can rise above 50°C for more than 10 consecutive days. Small bodies have a larger surface area of skin and larger lungs relative to their body mass than larger ones and are more likely to survive. Relatively larger skin allows them to cool better. Relatively larger lungs provide more oxygen (O2) uptake needed when mammals warm up.
The increase in severity, frequency and scale, applies to heat waves, droughts, forest fires, hurricanes, floods, rain bombs, severe thunderstorms, prolonged storms, extreme winds, dust, smoke storms from forest fires, unpredictable and sudden cold spells. In addition, wet areas will become wetter and dry areas will become drier. As a result, people will also experience starvation, leading to economic, political and social chaos. It is predicted that as a consequence, 30% of the world's population will die by 2070.
After 2100, global average temperatures could reach 32°C due to runaway global warming if we do not come close to the global fossil fuel reduction targets by 2025. What awaits us is the eventual complete extinction of humanity and the total collapse of our global civilization within a time frame of 3-5 decades.