Climate

This web page is about my hypothesis that the course of climate change is different from what is currently thought, including the suffocation of mammals larger than rats due to climate change in the near future. The hypothesis is philosophical and based on the latest scientific research.
Currently, the texts consist only of notes or annotations that will be developed as we go along. The unfinished texts are labelled In progress .

I wrote this page because I am curious about climate effects and the ultimate consequences about which science says very little. This is understandable because it cannot be conclusively demonstrated what will happen.
First of all I like to explain what seem wrong about the current scientific predictions about climate change. Then I want to show you what is missing and according to me how climate change will evolve.

Scientific omissions

Summary omissions

What is wrong with predictions of scientists about climate change. Well to mention the most important:

The calculations are probabilistic
Are only based on records of the last 100 years
Assumptions are based in ideas
The most important ingredients are missing i.e.: equilibrium, non linearity and the tipping point.
The contrary can not be proven i.e.: is not scientific
The human social bubble is not taken in consideration.

The calculations are probabilistic

Meaning estimation In progress .

Are only based on records of the last 100 years

Hoe can you base predictions on evens which did not happen in the previous 100 year or so. This is what scientists do. But the most comparable events happen during some of the five mass extinctions millions of years ago.

Science calls the current climate change the sixth mass extinction. Why do they not look what happened at the previous mass extinctions and include it in their predictions?

Assumptions are based in ideas

Assumptions are based in ideas and hence incomplete, the environment is too complex In progress

Similar records climate change. In progress

Records past centenaries. In progress

What happened at mass extinctions. In progress

The climate change predictions of the main stream scientists are based on what happened in the last 100 year, when no other mass extension occurred. Hence they must be incomplete or some of them must be dead wrong. I assume they know this and apply some ideas how to mitigate this. Scientific sound?

There are a more and more scientists which admit they cannot make prediction anymore based on the current events in nature. They see the thermal runaway but do not understand what is happening.

The most important ingredients are missing

Equilibrium, non linearity and the tipping point

see-saw and atoms -> Equilibrium, non linearity and the tipping point In progress .

In progress
[It is remarkable the principle of looking at scientific things from another prospective is not used with predictions of climate change. This while it is used in other scientific fields like the sting theory. Here they got stuck when they try to prove the theory using normal calculations. But when they looked from another unlikely perspective the calculations became more solvable.]

So things only happen gradually for small things but not for large evens like releasing huge amounts of global warming gases into the atmosphere.

Not scientific provable

The current accepted predictions cannot be tested. Also no proof is provided that there are no other influences which overturn the predictions. This is because a similar global climate change did not take place in the last few centuries.

Social bubble

People will not change because they cannot see beyond their social bubble. Logically, this has come about through natural selection, because otherwise you would have too much information to process In progress .

My predictions

Huge temperature increase

In progress

Huge reduction in oxygen

In progress

Conclusions

In progress

Recommendation

In progress

APPENDIX - Mass extinctions.

Sixth extinction event around 2100

The Anthropocene mass extinction is predicted around 2100.
This extinction in the future will be accompanied by rapid warming at an enormous rate and a global average temperature rise of more than 20°C.

Value	Unit
Temperature change
∆ more than 6	°C
Rate of temperature change
~20000	°C per million year

The trajectory of human carbon emissions under the heavy fossil fuel use scenario predicts a temperature rise consistent with the geologically determined magnitude threshold for mass extinction, which is 5.2 °C above pre-industrial levels. This would be reached before 2100. Potentially reaching the defined threshold on this time scale would lead to mass extinction similar to the first, second, third, fourth and fifth major extinctions, regardless of other non-climatic human changes adversely affecting animal life.

The predicted extinction rates are:

96% species
56% genera
57% families

The predicted extinction rates are based on the most severe extinction event in the past. This is due to the fact that the predicted temperature change of the future event is much higher than that of all past extinctions.

This will likely be the largest extinction event yet. Between 2025 and 2031, most plant species, insects, reptiles, birds and mammals will go extinct. In addition, all fish with gills in oceans will certainly go extinct due to the absence of oxygen (O₂) in the water. In some areas, mammals heavier than 25 kg die from excessive heat, as temperatures can rise above 50°C for more than 10 consecutive days. Small bodies have a larger surface area of skin and larger lungs relative to their body mass than larger ones and are more likely to survive. Relatively larger skin allows them to cool better. Relatively larger lungs provide more oxygen (O₂) uptake needed when mammals warm up.
The increase in severity, frequency and scale, applies to heat waves, droughts, forest fires, hurricanes, floods, rain bombs, severe thunderstorms, prolonged storms, extreme winds, dust, smoke storms from forest fires, unpredictable and sudden cold spells. In addition, wet areas will become wetter and dry areas will become drier. As a result, people will also experience starvation, leading to economic, political and social chaos. It is predicted that as a consequence, 30% of the world's population will die by 2070.
After 2100, global average temperatures could reach 32°C due to runaway global warming if we do not come close to the global fossil fuel reduction targets by 2025. What awaits us is the eventual complete extinction of humanity and the total collapse of our global civilization within a time frame of 3-5 decades.

Fifth extinction event

The Cretaceous and Paleogene extinction occurred 66 million years ago.
A 90°C heat wave engulfed the world, followed by a rapid cooling that caused this extinction.

Value	Unit
Temperature change
∆ ~5.2	°C
Rate of temperature change
10 to 100	°C per million year

The impact of an asteroid in Yucatán, Mexico caused this extinction. Some changes may have occurred before this asteroid, with intense volcanic activity and tectonic lifting. Sunlight was blocked for a few months.

Extinction rates:

76% species
40% genera
17% families

Before this extinction, dinosaurs experienced a large increase in diversity and abundance and became the dominant vertebrates in terrestrial ecosystems. Mammals also diversified greatly but remained small.

Fourth extinction event

The Triassic - Jurassic extinction event was 201.3 million years ago.
The extinction was associated with multiple rapid cooling and warming events between global average temperatures of 9 and 22°C over several decades.

Value	Unit
Temperature change
∆ ~7.4	°C
Rate of temperature change
More than 10	°C per million year

Before this extinction, temperatures dropped from 32 to 19°C degrees between 240 and 201.3 million years ago, but this was not the cause of the extinction.
During the extinction, there was a quadrupling of carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere and this suggests an associated 3 to 4°C ‘greenhouse’ warming across the boundary. But investigations show a temperature drop. Even temperatures 10°C below normal would have been plausible.
The culprit of these events were probably a series of massive volcanic eruptions in the Central Atlantic Magmatic Province, which may have lasted for hundreds of years as Pangea (the giant single continent) began to split into the continents we know today. These eruptions were literally orders of magnitude larger than any we see today. They may have released huge amounts of magma, carbon dioxide and sunlight-blocking aerosols. These aerosols released by these volcanic eruptions would actually do the opposite of the greenhouse gases and eventually cool the climate significantly, resulting in volcanic winters that may have lasted more than a decade.

Extinction rates:

80% species
47% genera
23% families

The Triassic-Jurassic boundary marks a major mass extinction of animals. Volcanic winters also killed the uninsulated reptiles, but dinosaurs with a higher metabolism and isolated feathers and small mammals were able to survive. Dinosaurs appeared 44 million years and the first true mammals 24 million years before this extinction in the Triassic. As dinosaurs evolved, they adapted to low oxygen levels and extreme heat. Unlike the breathing of mammals, where inhaling and exhaling are two separate processes, the hollow bones and air sacs in the bodies of dinosaurs and birds allow one-way breathing: inhaling and exhaling simultaneously. This also allowed them to cool down during intense exertion. As a result, some dinosaurs could grow large, which was an added advantage because they kept their bodies warm with a lower food intake than warm-blooded animals. Therefore, they could move quickly at lower temperatures. A bigger body volume has less heat loss due to a comparatively reduced body area. A larger body volume has less heat loss due to a relatively smaller body surface area.
However, for warm-blooded mammals with fur and directional breathing, the opposite is true. Instead, they need to lose heat. In addition, they need more oxygen and food per body weight. Therefore, they were not bigger than rats because a small body size has a relatively larger body and lung surface area. This allowed them to get rid of heat better and provided them with more oxygen for their high metabolism.

Third extinction event

The Permian - Triassic extinction event was 251.9 million years ago.
The extinction was accompanied by rapid warming and the global average temperature rose to 32°C.

Value	Unit
Temperature change
∆ more than 10	°C
Rate of temperature change
100 to 1000	°C per million year

Intense volcanic activity in Siberia caused increased carbon dioxide (CO₂) and sulphur (H₂S) levels from volcanoes resulting in ocean acidification, acid rain and other changes in ocean and land chemistry. The greenhouse effect due to high carbon dioxide (CO₂) levels caused this extinction. This was mainly caused by intense volcanic activity. All large animals became extinct.

Extinction rates:

96% species
56% genera
57% families

Colder conditions, extreme seasonal and drier environments existed 68 million years before this extinction. In these conditions, tribal mammals evolved. These ancestors of mammals adapted by having a nasal bridge that warmed and moistened the incoming air. They may also not have been as cold-blooded as earlier species and adapted by laying eggs with a protected shell that prevents dehydration. Some of these tribal mammals grew taller than 5 metres. This made their skin relatively smaller than their body volume and thus better suited to colder temperatures.

Second extinction events

These Late Devonian extinctions took place about 359 to 372 million years ago.
The extinction was accompanied by rapid cooling and the global average temperature dropped to 10°C.

Value	Unit
Temperature change
∆ ~5.2	°C
Rate of temperature change
10 to 100	°C per million year

The second extinction occurred due to high oxygen (O₂) and low carbon diaoxide (CO₂) levels caused by the rapid growth and diversification of land plants.

Extinction rates:

75% species
35% genera
19% families

First extinction events

These Ordovician - Silurian extinctions took place about 444 to 445 million years ago.
The extinction was accompanied by rapid cooling and the global average temperature dropped to 13°C.

Value	Unit
Temperature change
∆ ~8.4	°C
Rate of temperature change
10 to 100	°C per million year

Cooling and falling sea levels, possibly caused by an earlier drop in atmospheric carbon dioxide, caused this extinction.
Intense glacial and interglacial periods caused large sea level fluctuations and dramatically shifted coastlines. The tectonic uplift of the mountain range in eastern to northeastern North America caused much weathering, carbon dioxide (CO2) sequestration and consequently changes in the climate and chemical composition of the oceans.

Extinction rates:

86% species
57% genera
27% families