Climate

Summary

For the first time in history, Earth's dominant species, humans, are disrupting the delicate balance of their own ecosystem. Our production of carbon dioxide (CO₂) is having a catastrophic impact on Earth's systems. We have the potential to release two or three thousand gigatons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere in the next few centuries. If we look at the third mass extinction 251.9 million years ago, we may be talking about similar amounts of carbon dioxide being released, but over millennia rather than millions of years. And that is scary. It is already causing the planet to heat up. And scientists fear that the runaway global warming of the past could recur in the near future.

It is inevitable that the global average temperature will rise by 5°C or even 10°C above the pre-industrial level of 13.5°C. These are the following equilibria of the global mean temperatures and therefore the temperature will rise very rapidly, even within a decade or so.

A global average temperature rise of 5°C may sound small to us, but it has a huge impact on Earth's climate. Warming of the atmosphere affects the way rain is generated and dictates where it falls. In equatorial regions, it simply stops raining and turns into a scorched desert. The global temperature rise of 5°C also warms the oceans and stagnates that oxygen dissolves in seawater at the surface. Because the seawater temperature rise is higher at the poles because the ice caps have thawed, the circulation of seawater around the world stops. This prevents the normally dissolved oxygen from sinking and mixing with oxygen-poor seawater when it gets colder. When ocean seawater loses oxygen, it becomes a breeding ground for toxic hydrogen sulphide (H₂S) producing bacteria. These accumulate to such high concentrations that they invade the shallows of the ocean and displace all air-breathing organisms from these environments.

The sediments of the ocean floor contain methane hydrate, a frozen mixture of water and methane. If the temperature rises even a few degrees, it can destabilise and cause the release of methane (CH₄). The release of methane could increase average global temperatures by another 5°C. Indeed, an estimated 30 trillion tonnes of methane (CH₄) are currently trapped in ice on the seabed, and methane is converted into the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide (CO₂), which is released into the atmosphere. The result of the temperature rise is a catastrophe that will wipe out almost everything on land.

Human carbon dioxide emissions

The sections that follow describe in detail my findings on human carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions:

• Effect human carbon dioxide emissions

  Presents the effect of human emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂) on temperature and the risks to the survival of the human race.

• The cause and rationale

  Provide explanations as to why these effects on climate occur and why it is a risk to the human race.

• Scientific omissions

  Here I explain what I think is wrong with current scientific predictions about climate change.

The Extinction webpage compares the similarity between the current increase in carbon dioxide (CO₂) in the atmosphere and the mass extinctions of the past 500 million years ago. But humans are emitting carbon dioxide 200 times faster than super volcanic eruptions that caused the most severe mass extinctions on Earth.

Impact of human carbon dioxide emissions

Increase global average temperature

Human carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions since the beginning of the industrial revolution around 1800 will cause:

1. An increasingly rapid rise in the Earth's average temperature.
2. An average temperature up to 5°C even if human carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions are reduced to zero.

Effects on humans

A rise in global average temperature to 5°C will cause the following:

3. Extreme heat waves that amplify the impact of drought, increase the behaviour of forest fires, dangerous smoke, water insecurity, power shortages and agricultural losses, causing significant damage to communities around the world. Heat waves in cities are often exacerbated by the ‘urban heat island’ effect. Mortality and illness occur when temperatures of 50°C or higher persist for more than 10 days.
4. Multi-year droughts in equatorial regions turning into scorched deserts, depriving people of food and water.
5. Extreme rainfall leading to devastating floods, landslides, widespread power outages, severe damage to infrastructure and agriculture, and loss of life. In the future, these impacts will be more severe in East Africa, South Asia, Southern Europe, the North and Middle East of the United States and Southern Brazil, as well as in other countries.
6. Extreme storms of increasing brute force that flatten islands and inundate coastal cities causing injury and loss of life.
7. The decline of sea ice resulting in a rapid rise in global average temperatures, more intense heat waves worldwide, accelerated warming of the oceans, collapse of sea currents, extreme winters in the northern hemisphere with temperatures dropping to 30°C in a century, shifting of climate belts of the world to the south and unpredictability of weather. This will eventually disrupt food and water supplies, increase energy demand for heating, and put pressure on infrastructure and cost lives.
8. A decrease in glaciers, land ice sheets and land permanently frozen in Antarctica and mountainous areas, in addition a decrease in sea ice. This will accelerate sea level rise to 75 metres when all Antarctic ice returns to the oceans.
9. The depletion of oxygen in oceans, which is taking place now, and will lead to a decline in fish populations and have serious long-term human health, social and economic consequences. Oxygen-depleted deeper ocean waters produce greenhouse gases such as nitrous oxide (N₂O), carbon dioxide (CO₂) and methane (CH₄) that can reach the ocean surface and enter the atmosphere, contributing to further warming.
10. Ocean acidification, which will lead to the extinction of benthic organisms in the deep ocean well before 2100. This will lead to a decline in commercial fishing and coastal tourism, affecting the livelihoods of some 400 to 800 million people.
11. Mass extinction of mammals larger than rats. This also means that humans are likely to go extinct at a global average temperature rise of 3C and most life on Earth will disappear at a 5C rise. A rise of more than 5°C could occur as early as 2034.
12. The unpredictability of weather increases when the human-induced increase in global average temperature is only a few degrees Celsius.

The cause and rationale

Cause increase global average temperature

1. Earth's average temperature is rising faster and faster because of:
   1. Positive feedback. This is evidenced by the greater increase in temperature than carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions since about 1970. Delay in climate systems. The current temperature rise is 50 years behind the level of carbon dioxide (CO₂) in the atmosphere. The current level of 1.5°C is thus the result of emissions around 1970.
   2. Humans emit carbon dioxide 200 times faster than super volcanic eruptions that caused the most severe mass extinctions on Earth. People will not change because they cannot see beyond their social bubble and do not want to give up their current way of life, such as driving (electrically), going on air holidays or otherwise consuming less, until it is too late.
2. A global average temperature increase of 5 or 10°C even if human carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions are reduced to zero because of:
   1. The tipping point has passed, which was around 1970. This is because of the positive feedback since 1970 and the lag in climate systems of about 50 years.
   2. A thermal runaway that occurs after the tipping point, which will cause global average temperatures to rise exponentially until the next equilibrium is reached, which is 5 or 10°C higher than the pre-industrial global average temperature. This is based on global average temperatures over the past 500 million years.

Underpinning effects on humans

1. Extreme heat waves are caused by heat domes. These domes are abnormally large high-pressure systems where heat is trapped. Ultimately, it comes from heat trapped by carbon dioxide (CO₂). Just a small increase in the Earth's average temperature will cause larger jets in the upper atmosphere. As they get bigger, they slow down and can become stationary. This creates a large high-pressure system that traps heat. At that point, heat domes can form.
2. Droughts in equatorial regions occur due to a marked lack of rainfall. The already dry soils prevent transpiration. Soils become drier as a result of higher temperatures due to heat trapped by increasing carbon dioxide (CO₂) levels, especially in equatorial regions. The absence of transpiration causes air temperatures to rise even further, resulting in a positive feedback or, in other words, a snowball effect.
3. Extreme rainfall is due to the warming of the atmosphere and oceans. Every 1°C warming allows the air to hold an extra 7.2% moisture. The increase supercharges the water cycle and more moist air moves over land and converges into intense rain bombs. Prevailing wind currents dictate where it falls.
4. More frequent severe extreme storms are due to warmer sea surface temperatures. Seas are getting warmer due to higher temperatures in the atmosphere caused by the increase in carbon dioxide (CO₂).
5. The decline in sea ice is caused by:
   1. The rapid rise in global average temperature is due to the smaller surface area of snow ice, which will reduce roughly 80% of sunlight to space. This reduction in albedo will increase global average temperatures and thaw even more snow ice. The ‘point of no return’ is over as the snow ice cover is decreasing at an ever-faster rate.
   2. Heat waves are becoming more intense worldwide because the downwind at the start of a heat wave (anticyclone) is getting warmer due to man-made greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide. This includes heat absorbed by the ground and retained by the pressure of the wind. This leads to the air being compressed with all the energy generated by heat, creating a heat wave.
   3. The accelerated warming of the oceans is a consequence of the reduction in albedo and will lead to 90% of heat being absorbed by the oceans. This in turn will further reduce the area of snow ice, causing the ocean to warm faster.
   4. The collapse of ocean currents of the great ocean conveyor will reach a tipping point due to the ‘salt feedback mechanism’ as a result of man-made global warming. The great ocean transporter is a large system of ocean currents that includes the Gulf Stream. Observations indicate that these currents import salty surface water into the Atlantic and export less salty water into the deep ocean. As these currents weaken, the surface of the Atlantic becomes fresher, leading to further weakening in a runaway process that can lead to a sudden collapse. It only takes a small initial forcing to trigger this process, like the melting of the Greenland ice sheet.
   5. Extreme winters in the northern hemisphere and the shifting of all the world's climate belts will shift further south, including the equatorial rainfall belt will result from the weakening and collapse of marine currents of the great oceanic conveyor. Extreme winters are also caused by the high-pressure winds circling the Arctic (polar jet stream) being destabilised by warmer air. This high-pressure wind can deflect to the south and bring bitter cold with it.
6. Decline of glaciers and land ice sheets is a result of:
   1. An accelerated sea level rise of up to 75 metres if all Antarctic ice is restored to the oceans. This is because the current Antarctic ice sheet by itself holds enough water to raise sea level by 70 metres. What also contributes are glaciers and ice sheets in other parts of the world that are melting and adding water to the ocean. In addition, the volume of the ocean expands as the water warms. A final, much smaller cause of sea level rise is the decline in the amount of liquid water on land, such as aquifers, lakes and reservoirs, rivers and soil moisture. This shift of liquid water from land to ocean is largely due to people depleting groundwater.
   2. Increasing damage from coastal storms is due to sea level rise, extreme rainfall and more severe extreme storms. The wind from a coastal storm pushes a storm surge (a wall of water) from the ocean onto land and will increase to metres above sea level rise in the near future.
   3. The release of large amounts of greenhouse gases leads to a higher rate of global average temperature. This is because the thawing of permafrost releases huge amounts of carbon dioxide (CO₂). But so does methane (CH₄), a greenhouse gas 20 times more potent than carbon dioxide (CO₂). The rapid depletion of permafrost in the Arctic threatens efforts to combat global warming. Moreover, it amplifies climate change in other regions to the extent that the assumed geographical limits of cold permafrost regions may be exceeded.
7. Depletion of oxygen in oceans is cause by:
   1. Warmer ocean water holds less oxygen and has greater buoyancy than cooler water. This leads to reduced mixing of oxygen-rich water near the surface with deeper water, which naturally contains less oxygen (O₂). Warmer water also increases the oxygen demand of living organisms.
   2. Runoff from fertilizers, sewage, animal waste, aquaculture and deposition of nitrogen (N) from fossil fuel combustion promote excessive growth of plant life that particularly affects coastal areas. Warming ocean water is expected to cause further oxygen loss in nutrient-rich coastal areas, exacerbating the situation.
8. Ocean acidification is mainly caused by carbon dioxide (CO₂)emissions from human activities and these rising atmospheric levels also increase the level absorbed by the oceans. The associated chemical reaction produces carbonic acid (H₂CO₃) that breaks down into a bicarbonate ion (HCO-3) and a hydrogen ion (H+). The presence of free hydrogen ions (H+) increases acidity. Ocean acidification is likened to the greenhouse effect about 56 million years ago, when ecosystems on the surface experienced various impacts, but organisms living on the bottom in the deep ocean suffered a major extinction. Currently, the rate of carbon addition to the atmosphere-ocean system is about 10 times higher than 56 million years ago.
9. Mass extinction mammals larger than rats. Why mammals larger than rats will go extinct is because this has happened in multiple mass extinctions. The reason is that they are warm-blooded, do not have an efficient and cooling breeding system like birds, for example, and larger animals are less able to lose excess heat due to a smaller skin area relative to their volume (size).
10. The unpredictability of weather increases when the human-induced increase in the global average temperature is only a few degrees Celsius. The unpredictability is linked to the growth of storms known as vortices in the troposphere, the layer in the atmosphere closest to Earth. When the air at the Earth's surface is warmer, changes in the vertical arrangement of heat and cold in the atmosphere cause vortices to grow faster. When the vortices grow faster, the models seem to quickly lose track of the initial conditions. And that means the forecast window gets smaller.

Scientific gaps

Scientists say little about the eventual drastic consequences of increased carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentrations by humans. The main reasons are:

1. Tipping points and equilibrium
   There are a growing number of scientists who admit that they can no longer make predictions based on current events in nature. They see the thermal runaway but do not understand what will happen as a result. These runaways occur after a tipping point and will then increase exponentially until the next equilibrium is reached.
2. Inappropriate data
   Climate effects are only based on data from the past 150 years. But during this period, carbon dioxide (CO₂) levels were much lower than current and future levels and no mass expansion took place. This makes for uncertain predictions.
3. Earlier extinctions due to high CO2 levels are neglected.
   However, the most similar events occur precisely during the five mass extinctions millions of years ago and the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, a major heat spike 56 Myr ago.
4. Impirical probability is inappropriate
   Also known as empirical probability or observational probability, is unsuitable for drawing conclusions by current means.
5. Limited view
   Average scientists are specialists rather than generalists and often lack an understanding of effects of other disciplines. Also, most people achieve a high level of education due to a very good memory, but that does not mean they are excellent analytical thinkers. They are limited to learned tricks in problem solving.
6. Consensus
   Predictions are usually presented more attractively by a formal group or scientists. There are several reasons for this.
   First, predictions are often based on ideas and influenced by the social reality of a scientific community and may have nothing to do with physical reality, or in other words the physically existing environment.
   Second, most people are unable to think outside the box and follow the consensus like social animals.
   Third, bad messages are avoided even if they are true. This is because optimism is mandatory in our culture and realists are not accepted and are portrayed as pessimists.